Here’s a list of some teams who seemed to be on their way towards earning a spot on the dance floor, but now may find themselves a wallflower come selection Sunday.
Mississippi- the Rebels had a terrific non conference schedule where they went undefeated, beating the likes of South Alabama, Winthrop, New Mexico, and Clemson. They started the season 13-0, but much like Clemson last year, the Rebels could be another team to go deep into the season undefeated and then undo themselves in conference play. Mississippi is just 5-9 in the SEC and 19-9 overall, and while victories over Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt help their cause, the Rebels lost too many games against poor teams near the bottom of the conference, and that's just not going to cut it.
Ohio St.- I think it’s finally time to say you can stick a fork in the Buckeyes. Ohio St. has to get credit for the non conference schedule they played against UNC, Butler, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, but not too much considering they lost all four of those games. They did beat two other bubble teams in Syracuse and Florida, but the problem for the Buckeyes is that that is as good as it gets. Ohio St. beat most of the people they were “supposed” to in the Big Ten, but none of the ones they weren’t. The Buckeyes have now lost four in a row and are a mere 8-8 in league play with Michigan St. and Purdue left. Simply put, Ohio St. needs a miracle.
Kansas St.- most people are blinded by the brilliance of Michael Beasley (which they should be), but don’t realize that Kansas St. has worked their way onto the bubble. The Wildcats are still 8-6 in what I believe to be an underrated Big 12, but they have lost five of six to drop to 18-10 overall. The only noteworthy victory the Wildcats have is over Kansas, which is a big note, and they have wins over Oklahoma and Texas A&M as well, but that is it. Kansas St. will need to win their last two games against Colorado and Iowa St. A falter in one of those games and the Wildcats could conceivably be on the outside looking in when all is said and done, barring a deep run in the conference tournament.
St. Joseph’s- Two weeks ago St. Joe’s was sitting in solid position for the NCAA tournament. The Red Hawks were 7-3 in the A-10, alone in second place, and 16-7 overall. When you are in the A-10, however, every game is precious, because every loss to a team like La Salle and Saint Louis hurts that much more, and that’s what happened to St. Joe’s. With those two losses, the Red Hawks are now tied for second in conference with Temple, and just half a game ahead of the next three teams. Now, St. Joe’s has Temple, Xavier, and Dayton, left, and a misstep (not Xavier) could cost them a trip to the dance.
Number one seeds for this week:
1-UNC
2-Memphis
3-UCLA
4-Tennessee
*Stats from ESPN.com
UUUGGGHHH
16 years ago
4 comments:
Is this really the bubble? Or is this your list of teams that are dead in the water. Either way I take issue with it, although ever so slightly. Mississippi is, to me, as dead as you can be. 5-9 in the SEC is an instant death nail in my opinion. That is truly PATHETIC, especially in a conference that has slipped and is probably the 4th or 5th best conference in the land right now. So for me, MSU is off the bubble and out of the Mississippi is off the bubble and out of the tournament.
Ohio State is the once team that I truly agree with you on, but I would sit them firmly on top of the bubble right now, and stray away from saying they need a miracle. While I personally think that the Big 10 is weak and overrated, the top 4, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan State are all ranked inside of the top 20, so this does give their conference credence. If they could manage to knock of Michigan State at home that would give them a real quality win in the eyes of the selection committee and put them at 10-8 in conference, giving them a decent shot to become the 5th team from the Big 10. I think that right now they are two wins (1 vs. MSU and one Big 10 Tourney win) away from being in the tournament, which I think puts them pretty squarely on the bubble. However, if they lose to MSU, which I assume they will since they, as you pointed out, have almost no quality wins, then I think they are out of the tournament unless they manage to make a run to the Big 10 Tournament Final.
St. Joes is OUT. As you said a slip up would put them in a lot of trouble and they surely did that in losing to Temple. They are now just 8-6 in the A-10, with absolutely no quality wins (unless you count UMass, which I do not). They lost to every solid team they played (Syracuse, Gonzaga, Creighton, Xavier) and even managed an out of conference loss to last place Patriot League Holy Cross. This along with being 5-5 in their last 10 makes it impossible for me to even make an argument for St. Joes to get in.
I still have to believe that Kansas State is in as of right now. 3rd place in the 3rd best conference in the land is good enough for me, and will be good enough for the selection committee, especially with that win against Kansas. I want to assume that they will beat Iowa State on the road, but this is difficult considering their 2-6 road record. Still even if they finish 9-7 they will be the 3rd place team in the Big XII, which should get 5 teams at minimum into the tournament. And the Beasley factor does matter. The committee will not want to leave the most dynamic player in the country as well as counterpart freshman Bill Walker, out of the tournament if they can make an argument, and in this case it is a strong one, to get them in. I think Kansas State is in the tournament assuming they do not lose 2 in a row to inferior teams, which they would need to do to lose to ISU and then in the first round of the Big XII tourney.
SO in conclusion:
Kansas State: IN
Ohio State, Mississippi, St. Joe's: OUT
I just noticed that I wrote MSU once when I intended to write Mississippi. My apologies.
If you bothered to look at the title you would notice it says bursting bubbles, so it is teams that are fading and are really on the outside of the bubble. I think Mississippi is done, that's it. Odds of them making the tourney with a sub-.500 conference record are extremely slim. Ohio St. got a big win over Purdue, but that's only their second over and RPI top 50 team. I still think they need to beat MSU and make it to the Big Ten semis to have a legitimate chance. Kansas St. is also the only one of the four that I have in right now as well, and that's just because of their conference record. They can't afford to stumble down the stretch though. St. Joe's helped their cause a lot by beating Xavier, but I don't think that alone will be enough. 9-6 in the A-10 isn't incredibly impressive. They'll need to win at Dayton Saturday and do well in the conference tourney.
Also, you can't give Ohio St. for being in the Big Ten for the strength of the four teams at top, because before the other day Ohio St. hadn't beaten any of them, and had just picked on the lowly bottom of the league. And still, they lost at Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota.
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