The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

It’s that time of year again people. Get excited. No, I’m not talking about the holiday season; it’s much much better than that. Behold: college basketball season, the greatest time of the year. I know that I slacked off at the end of last season and didn’t follow through as I kinda-sorta abandoned the blog after the Sweet 16. Don’t worry though, this is a new year and I am re-dedicated and intend to start fresh. Let’s begin.

I like to think of college basketball season as 4 months of Christmas, followed by three weeks of Halloween. Let me see if I can explain my reasoning for this. It’s four months of joy and happiness, with little presents scattered in randomly along the way like Texas v. UCLA (12/4), Michigan State v. UNC (12/3), and UConn v. Gonzaga (12/20) just to name a few, and that doesn’t include any of the conference schedules. Then, to cap the whole thing off, the greatest gift that God ever bestowed upon his beloved children: March Madness. Three weeks of being overwhelmed by an orgy of college basketball greatness, where legends are born and buzzer beaters are abundant. It’s so much excitement in such a short time period; that is why I compare it to a three week Halloween. The kids are completely consumed by going around the neighborhood collecting candy and then indulging in it all night, leading to an extreme sugar high, followed closely by vomiting and then passing out. I can say that this is similar to the experience I share each year come March Madness. Sheer ectasy for three weeks, followed by confusion and sickness, with side of minor depression. There is nothing better. I can already hear the sweet sound of Bill Raftery’s voice: “A little nylon for the big fella!!!” Now let’s get to my Top 25:

#1 North Carolina- This seemed like a fairly obvious selection. They return the reigning national player of the year in Tyler Hansbrough and all their starters from a year ago. There’s no reason to see why this team should miss a beat from last year when they were the #1 overall seed in the dance and made it to the final four. The season-ending injury suffered by freshman hopeful Tyler Zeller against Kentucky hurts, but they still have another freshman big in Ed Davis to help Hansbrough and Deon Thompson out. Ellington, Lawson, Green and Co. will continue to run opposing teams off the court.

#2 Connecticut- Calhoun’s team is absolutely stacked with talent. Jerome Dyson and A.J. Price form one of the most explosive backcourts in the nation, and freshman phenom Kemba Walker and Craig Austrie provide some quality backup as they are both averaging double figures after the first 4 games. Inside, good luck getting a shot off with Mutomb—I mean Thabeet roaming the paint, and Adrien bullying and physically abusing opponents. If Calhoun can get these guys focused and avoid off court problems, this team is going to be scary.

#3 Louisville- The Cardinals young talent has another year of experience and maturity under their belt. Terence Williams and Earl Clark are freak athletes who will surprise people by how much they step up this year. Normally you would think losing David Padgett, Derrick Caracter, and Juan Palacios would be a big loss inside, but UL won’t miss a step with highly-touted recruit Samardo Samuels. He’ll be one of best freshman in the country this year.

#4 Pittsburgh- I love this team. They are gritty, physical, and tenacious, and no one is going to push them around. That is the Pitt attitude, and man-child DeJuan Blair is going to make sure it stays that way. With leadership and experience from Levance Fields and Sam Young (who each seems like they’ve been there for ten years), the Panthers are going to be one of the best in the Big East and the nation.

#5 UCLA- Ben Howland brought that Pitt attitude to UCLA when he arrived there in ’03, and that’s why they’ve been to the final four in each of the last three years. They lose Kevin Love from last year, but they still have Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Alfred Aboya, and one of the best freshman classes in the nation, including standout Jrue Holiday. With this much talent and their exceptional defense, don’t be surprised to find the Bruins in Detroit come early April.

#6 Duke- DeMarcus Nelson led the Blue Devils at 14.5 ppg last season, but Duke had five players average double figures and they will be able to compensate. Duke always seems to be ranked in the top 10 no matter who they lose, and this year will be no different. Freshman Elliot Williams joins Paulus, Singler, Henderson, and Scheyer (the other four who averaged double digits) as the Dukies will look to compete with the Heels for the ACC title.

#7 Texas- It’s not easy to replace a first team all-American in D.J. Augustin, but Texas has the tools to be just as good as they were last year. Rick Barnes has decided to move Damion James to more of a perimeter oriented role, which I believe is a good move. James has the talent and athleticism to play out there, it’s just a matter of getting accustomed to his new position. Justin Mason will manage the point so A.J. Abrams can work off screens for open shots as he is deadly from deep, and fifth year big Connor Atchley is a tough matchup.

#8 Michigan State- This will be Raymar Morgan’s breakout year. Yeah he averaged 14.0 ppg last year, but that was just the tip of the iceberg. This year he will be Big Ten player of the year. Diaper dandy-to-be Delvin Roe adds more depth to the frontline, while Kalin Lucas gives the Spartans a spark on the outside.

#9 Notre Dame- It’s all about Luke Harangody. I know you thought the same thing when you first saw him that I did: this guy is an oaf! He looks like Shrek! I’ll be surprised if he can run up and down the court without tripping over his own feet! There’s no way he’s going to be good. And what did he do? Not much, besides winning Big East player of the year of course. He’s obviously got the talent, and he’s a lot more athletic than people know. He’ll lead the Irish to an impressive season as they return almost everyone from last season’s 25-8 campaign.

#10 Purdue- The Baby Boilers are all grown up. Well, maybe not completely grown up, but at least a year older. E’Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel lead this team that returns all its key members from last season’s 15-3 performance in the Big Ten. I think the key will be the play of point guard Chris Kramer. He’s an underrated player who really served as the glue of this team last year, and his leadership and stellar defense will play an important role again this season.

#11 Marquette- The Golden Eagles are a three-headed monster led by arguably the best backcourt in the nation. Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews all return to lead a team that can handle any other team in the nation on the perimeter. I look for Maurice Acker and David Cubillan to show a lot of improvement after getting lots of minutes last year, giving Marquette one of the deepest backcourts as well. They are undermanned and undersized up front, but Lazar Hayward is a beast who plays tough and a lot bigger than he is. It will be interesting to see how all these upperclassmen deal with the loss of head coach Tom Crean.

#12 Gonzaga- Watch out for Austin Daiye; I think this season will be his coming out party. The sophomore turned it on at the end of last season to finish the year averaging 10.5 points a contest and he’s already averaging 15.5 this year. The ‘Zags will need consistency from talents like Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt, as well as consistency on the defensive end of the court.

#13 Memphis- How can a team lose three players like Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Joey Dorsey, after losing a heartbreaker (which they blew) in the national championship, and still return to prominence? Well, if your coach is John Calipari, then easily. The Tigers still have key members from last year’s team like Shawn Taggert, Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier, Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack, along with a trio of dynamite freshman led by Tyreke Evans.

#14 Oklahoma- The Sooners game plan is very simple: give the ball to Blake Griffin, and then get the hell out of the way. Every opponent knows exactly what this game plan is, but they most likely won’t be able to do anything about it. Surround him with solid players like Austin Johnson, Tony Crocker, and freshman Willie Warren, and Oklahoma will be a tough team to beat. (P.S. did you know Griffin is averaging 19.8 boards through the first four games!!??)

#15 Arizona State- I love James Harden. I love the way he plays and I like his ability to take control of the game for the Sun Devils. I thought ASU got robbed of an NCAA berth last year (if you remember they were the only team I predicted incorrectly to make the dance) and I think Harden, Pendergraph and Co. are mad about it, as they should be. With a down year coming for the Pac-10, I expect ASU to do very well.

#16 Villanova- I had my mind made up about this team after their first round victory over Clemson in the tourney last year. They were getting run out the gym (I believe they trailed by 18-20 points?) and looked hopeless, and then did a complete one-eighty and dominated the Tigers. Now granted, they played as bad in the beginning as they did well in the end, but I’m a glass-half-full kind of guy. Scottie Reynolds leads a deep backcourt that can literally catch on fire from distance, and Dante Cunningham heads an undersized frontcourt that always seems to do a good job against bigger teams.

#17 Tennessee- Well, they still have one Smith left. Ramar and JuJuan are gone, as well as silky smooth Chris Lofton, but the versatile slasher Tyler Smith remains. He will be an SEC player of the year candidate, and he still has familiar faces in J.P. Prince and Wayne Chism to support him. Scotty Hopson will be a freshman to watch for the Volunteers, and his play will be intricate for UT’s somewhat thin backcourt.

#18 Miami (FL)- Jack McClinton is one of the best player’s you’ve never heard of, or at least don’t know that much about. On top of that, he leads a team that is compiled of solid players that no one knows about. Frank Haith has done a great job down in Miami, and this is the year that people are going to start to take notice.

#19 Florida- They may not show just how good they are at first, but this team will get better with every game. Nick Calathes is a do-it-all type player: a guard who can score, rebound, and assist. He’s triple-double threat. A poor man’s Jason Kidd (a very, very poor man). Although just a sophomore, he will learn to become a leader as the season wears on, as he will be responsible for handling and developing the terrific freshman class the Gators brought in.

#20 Georgetown- I still like the Hoyas because they still have players left over from their final four run two years ago in Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers. These are two savvy players who have the experience and know what it takes to win and win on a big stage when it counts. Do you remember that Elite Eight game against UNC? Unbelievable. Austin Freeman and Chris Wright have had a year to learn JT III’s Princeton offense, and the Hoyas may have lost Hibbert, but they haven’t lost a go-to big man. Freshman Greg Monroe is already averaging 17.0 ppg in his first two games and will be one of the best freshmen big’s in the nation. Wow, I really like this team, maybe I should have ranked them higher.

#21 Wake Forest- I’m going to have to use the “baby” nickname again. It’s actually probably more appropriate for the Baby Deacons, as they will rely mostly on sophomores Jeff Teague and James Johnson and freshmen Al-Farouq Aminu and Tony Woords. This team is fun to watch they are not shy with the trigger and love to shoot three’s , it’s just a question of whether they learn to calm down when they need to and play smart. I’m worried about how their lack of strength in the nonconference schedule may affect them come ACC play however.

#22 Davidson- Everyone knows Stephen Curry from Davidson’s improbable Elite Eight run last year, but I wonder how many fans paid enough attention to remember Jason Richards and his 8 assists per game? The big question mark for the Wildcats coming into this season was how Curry would adjust to playing the point more often and not having Richards to feed him the rock. His response? 35.0 ppg and 8 assists per game through the first five contests.

#23 Baylor- A similar situation to that of the Miami Hurricanes here with Baylor in that they have talented players people don’t know about. LaceDarius Dunn went under the radar last year as a freshman as the nation focused on Beasley and Rose, but this kid can play. He and Curtis Jerrells spearhead an experienced, senior-laden team that is coming off their first NCAA appearance since 1988.

#24 Syracuse- I’m surprised the Orange didn’t start the season ranked. With Eric Devendorf getting another year of eligibility, the backcourt combination of him and Johnny Flynn is very formidable, and I expect Flynn to get even better with Devendorf beside him. Combine that with Paul Harris’ athleticism and Arinze Onuaku’s size down low, and I fully believe the ‘Cuse will compete with the top teams in the Big East.

#25 Xavier- The Musketeers lost half of their “Big 6” that brought them so close to the Final Four last season. Drew Lavender, Stanley Burrell, and Josh Duncan are all gone. I would argue that the three with the more raw (though perhaps unharnessed) talent remain in B.J. Raymond, Derrick Brown, and C.J. Anderson. The question will be whether these three can step up their game and while at the same time taking the young talent around them under their wing, which I think they will in a depleted A-10 conference.

Other teams to watch:

Kansas: I am a huge fan of Sherron Collins. I have felt that he is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode, and now that he is the man in Lawrence, he will. That being said, I could not put the Jayhawks in my top 25. They lost all five starters from last year’s national championship run. That’s just too much to recover from all at once. Don’t be surprised to find them there as the year goes on though. It all depends on how much Cole Aldrich steps up, and how their heavily touted freshman class develops.

Wisconsin: Any team coached by Bo Ryan will always be competitive. The guy knows how to coach, and he knows how to win games. Bottom line is, I think they will have a tough time adjusting without Michael Flowers and Brian Butch. Who will do the scoring for the Badgers? Can Trevon Hughes and Marcus Landry make up for their loss?

USC: I’m not as big on the Trojans as everyone else. They still have Dwight Lewis, Taj Gibson, and Daniel Hackett, and DeMar DeRozan will have an outstanding freshman year, but they don’t realize how much they are going to be affected by the losses of O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson. It’s going to take some time to get used to life without those two.

Not So Sweet Sixteen...

…for me at least. I was absolutely awful in my predictions for the first two rounds; it was a nightmare. I was 31-17, which is completely unacceptable if when you count the games which are “sure things” (well, those really don’t exist, but essentially sure things in the #1-#16 matchups). Not all is bad though. While I only had 9 of the sweet 16 teams correct (it really hurts to say that), I still have 7 of my elite 8 and all 4 final four teams. So I could make something of this mess I call my bracket. Anyways let’s see if I can do a little better job predicting the two rounds that will be played this weekend.

Sweet Sixteen Upsets:

#3 Louisville over #2 Tennessee- although I predicted this in my last post (which could be a mistake compared to what happened with the others), I’m going to stick with this upset. Going back even before the first two rounds to the SEC tourney, Tennessee has not looked like the same team they were during the regular season. Something has looked wrong, and if they decide to start J.P. Prince at the point again, their going to put up a huge number in the turnover column against Louisville’s pressure.

#10 Davidson over #3 Wisconsin- my heart is telling me I have to make this pick. I can’t go against Stephen Curry and the Davidson Wildcats. I’m fully on the Cinderella bandwagon. I’m convinced Curry cannot be stopped, and any team that can come from 17 down against Georgetown (which might as well be 30) in the second half and win gets my vote.

#7 West Virginia over #3 Xavier- I originally picked Xavier over Duke in this game, but clearly things have changed. Duke is not there, and instead there is a hot, dangerous West Virginia team awaiting the Musketeers. West Virginia easily handled Arizona’s athleticism in the first round to finish off the Wildcats disappointing season, and then took a punch from Duke early only to slowly wear them down the rest of the game. Xavier gave everyone a scare against Georgia, and then looked shaky at times against Purdue. This would only be an upset by seed.

I’m not going to change anything with my Elite 8; I still like my final four picks to get through to San Antonio. Maybe I should change them based upon how my other predictions fared out, but I’m going to give my bracket a chance to clean itself up and right the ship, which I think it will.

Brackets Baby

Well I don’t want to toot my own horn, but let’s just say this guy did a pretty good job in predicting the field for this year’s tournament. I got 64 of the 65 teams correct, and the two teams I mixed up, well one of them was my last team out, and the other surely had to be the NCAA’s last team out. I had Villanova as my last team in as of Sunday, but Georgia really messed me up with that win in the SEC Championship over Arkansas. That took away an at-large bid, and in my eye’s, that was Villanova’s. It’s not known for sure, but I’m confident that in the selection committee’s eyes Arizona St. had to be that team. There’s an argument for Virginia Tech, but if you look at their body of work over the course of the season, I don’t think they got snubbed at all. Sure they were 9-7 in the ACC, but they got the easy side of an unbalanced schedule as they played the four tourney teams (UNC, Duke, Clemson, and Miami) only once each in the regular season, losing all four. Their only top 50 RPI victory came in that victory over Miami in the ACC quarter. The Sun Devils beat Xavier, Stanford, USC, and Arizona (twice). They also had a better conference record than the Catz. Why, Georgia? I was so close.

And now I’ll move on to tourney picks, where karma should take over and screw me for just bragging. Let’s begin with the first round upsets (if I don’t list a game, that means I’m taking the chalk and picking the higher seed to win):

9 Arkansas over 8 Indiana- the Hogs have a load of talent and athleticism on that team, and their hot streak in the SEC tourney has me convinced they’ll beat the recently slumping Hoosiers who haven’t been the same team they lost Kelvin Sampson.

9 Kent St. over 8 UNLV- Al Fisher is a bonafide player and I’ve been high on the Golden Flashes down the stretch. They’ve beat some really good teams this year.

13 Siena over 4 Vanderbilt- I don’t know. I know that big upset is going to happen somewhere and I have a hunch. I don’t trust Vandy.

10 Davidson over 7 Gonzaga- Davidson has one 22 games in a row, and they’re playing in their home state. I think all those games they lost in the non conference to quality teams will help them in this one.

12 Temple over 5 Michigan St.- the typical 5-12 upset here. Temple is a hot team right now, and Michigan St. is too up and down for me.

10 St. Mary’s over 7 Miami- this seems to be a popular pick. St. Mary’s collapsed in the WCC semi against San Diego, but they have a ton of talent. Miami is no slouch either. It should be a really good game, but I give the edge to the Gaels.

11 Baylor over 6 Purdue- I just don’t like the way the Boilermakers have been playing recently, losing to Ohio St. and Illinois down the stretch, and I’m not impressed with the Big Ten to begin with.

10 Arizona over 7 West Virginia- this seems an odd pick because WVU played well in the Big East tourney and Arizona has underachieved all year, but my gut just tells me that Zona’s talent will prevail.

Second Round:

5 Notre Dame over 4 Washington St.- I like the offense of the Irish to conquer the defense of the Cougars in a really good game. In the end Harangody will be too much inside.

6 USC over 3 Wisconsin- the Trojans have a load of talent, and they’ve started to put it together really well towards the latter part of the season. I like offense over defense again in this one, but don’t think the Trojans can’t play a little defense of their own.

5 Drake over 4 UCONN- Drake is a deceptively athletic, REALLY good shooting team. UCONN has beasts on the front line, but Drake kind of reminds me of an improved version of the old Butler teams, and I like them to win this one.

(*notice no Cinderella teams in the Sweet 16. That could be a mistake)

Sweet 16:

3 Louisville over 2 Tennessee- will be one of the best games of the tournament. Two teams that will press each other and grind each other all day long. Only difference is that one wants to use the press to slow the game down, and the other to push the score up. I think Louisville gets their style of play across, and gets the W.

3 Xavier over 2 Duke- Duke looked stellar all season long, but towards the end, their flaws started to show. They have no post presence, and they rely too much on the three. Xavier has guards who can match their talent and quickness on the perimeter, and I think they will exceed it in this game.

Elite 8:

2 Texas over 1 Memphis- Memphis really got unlucky with this draw. Play a loaded Texas team in Houston? That’s going to be too much for Calipari’s poor free-throw shooting Tigers. Texas’ shooters Augustin and Abrams gun-sling their way into the Final Four.

Final Four:

1 Kansas over 1 UNC- I think Kansas’ guards have the advantage over the guards of the Tar Heels because of their depth and defense. Their depth on the front line as well will eventually wear down Hansbrough and the Heels.

1 UCLA over 2 Texas- in a rematch of a game played earlier this season, the Bruins will get some revenge. This time, their defense will suffocate the Longhorns and Love is unmatched inside.

Championship:

1 Kansas over 1 UCLA- KU gets the nod this year. They are an extremely talented, balanced team, and if they stay committed on the defensive end, they will be national champs. The key will be to try and contain Love as best as possible, and they will do that just enough to win it all.

Good luck to everyone in their predictions and pools, unless you’re in one that I am in as well. I’m not saying to take my advice on the picks, because when the tourney rolls around, no one is an expert (And I was never an expert to begin with anyways).

Tourney

Real quick before the selection show I'm going to list the bubble teams I think are in so I can take the glory when I get all the teams right.

Some of the bubble teams that are in:
Kentucky, Arkansas, St. Joe's, Texas A&M, Kansas St., South Alabama, St. Mary's

And the last four in:
Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon, Baylor

For me the last four slots were really close, and those four teams just edged out Villanova and Illinois St. After that was Dayton, UMass, and VCU.

People Are Dumb

I just felt the urge to write this particular blog post because of some of the stupidity that is out there trying to judge this year’s bubble situation. I read the Bubble Watch article for today on ESPN.com and was amazed at the sheer lack of intelligence by this one fool wjg24 in his comment. Below are two segments of what he wrote.

· 2. I believe most of Kentucky's problems lie in their losses, not in their wins. The loss to San Diego looks significantly better now, but the Gardner-Webb game still shines awfully brightly in a lot of people's minds. They did a hell of a job in conference play, but 6-7 in non-conference when the schedule wasn't that rough (Louisville, UNC and Indiana were the beasts there) is a difficult thing to overcome. Just ask Temple. I think they're in easily, probably a six or a seven seed...but I've been wrong before.
· 4. ASU's non-conferece sked included Cal Poly, Princeton, Florida GC, Delaware State, Coppin State, Montana State, Idaho and St. Francis. Yes,they did beat down Xavier, but that's not much of a slate. UA, on the other hand, went to Kansas UNLV and Memphis. Granted, they also had Adams St and UMKC, but for the most part they made an attempt at a difficult sked, plus won 10 total games against the top 100, by far the most among teams on the bubble. Hell...a 3rd of their slate was against the top 100. UA's in, ASU needs a win.

I would like to apologize for putting the two preceding paragraphs in the blog, as they are offensive to any person with a spec of knowledge about college basketball. Let’s look at the first point, where the fan compares Kentucky’s non conference to Temple’s, and then declares the Owls are a lock for the tourney. Are you f***ing kidding me? Let’s take a look at Temple’s non conference losses: Duke, Tennessee, Florida, Villanova, Providence, Akron, and College of Charleston. Their best non conference win was over OHIO. They did beat Xavier in conference, and their next best wins are over fellow bubblers UMass and St. Joe’s while they lost to Dayton. So, I’m confused, what makes Temple “in easily,” as a “six or seven seed?” Granted Kentucky’s non conference was no gem either as they didn’t beat anyone, but they did beat Tennessee, Vandy, Florida, Mississippi, and Arkansas in conference. I’m not saying you can’t argue against Kentucky’s non conference schedule, but why do you do it with Temple? And why do you declare Temple easily in? It just pisses me off.

That first point was more of a personal argument/disagreement, but this second one is more general. In the second point I copied, the commenter truly displays his stupidity. He argues Arizona State’s non conference victories over those teams listed, and then follows that by stating Arizona’s trips to Kansas, UNLV, and Memphis. Well guess what, Arizona lost to Kansas and Memphis. That leaves UNLV as their victory. Tell me, which victory is better, Xavier or UNLV? Right, so how is this guy arguing for ‘Zona? Strength of schedule I believe is an extremely overrated tool for measuring a teams resume. He lists those teams that Arizona played, but the fact is they lost two of those games. The important stat is not the strength of the team’s you play, it’s the strength of the team’s you BEAT. The only time strength of team’s you play becomes a factor is if a team loses any of those cupcake games to teams they are supposed to beat. Otherwise, the only important thing is the teams you defeat. For example, give credit to Arizona for playing those teams, but the fact is their only victory of the three was over UNLV, and while Arizona St. beat a bunch of those cupcakes, they then beat Xavier. So, for that slate of games compared between the two teams, ASU has the advantage. It would be different if they lost to one of those cupcakes, but they didn’t. This genius also forgets to realize that ASU beat Arizona both times they played each other this year.

Sorry, I just read that comment and needed to get this off my chest. While I’m at it, I might as well take some time to wave goodbye to the following team’s NCAA Tournament hopes as they lost today and will join the company of Syracuse in the NIT. Adios Florida, UAB, Houston, Maryland, and Mississippi. And congratulations to these proceeding teams for stubbing their toe when they could’ve locked up a bid: Oregon, Arizona St., Baylor, UMass, Villanova, and Dayton. Now you will all have to sweat it out for the next three days when you could have avoided that with a win. Here's a question: who wants to be in the tourney?

Tell Me What I Need To Do

The bubble situation is so complicated this year, I can’t give a Joe Lunardi-esque last four in, last four out type deal right now. Instead, here is a list of some major conference bubble teams and what they need to do in their league tournaments to guarantee a spot in the big dance (aside from winning it).

Virginia Tech, Maryland- Neither of these teams are in good shape, and Maryland especially has blown chances down the stretch to put themselves on the right side of the bubble. I believe anything less than making the conference title game will not be enough for either team.

Syracuse, Villanova- These two teams play each other in the first round of the Big East tournament in the 8-9 match up. It’s really more than that though. I think it’s a play-in game: winner goes dancing, loser to the NIT, and Villanova has much more at stake since their credentials aren’t as good as Syracuse’s, who would just get clipped if they lost.

Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon- for all these teams, a first round victory (which would be quarterfinal victory for Oregon and Arizona St.) should be enough to get them in, and would give the Pac-10 seven teams in. Arizona St. faces USC and Oregon faces Washington St., and a win in either of those would certainly ensure a trip to the dance, though losses could very well still see both teams in because of the quality of their opponents. Arizona absolutely has to beat the terrible Oregon St. Beavers who are winless in league play, or they’re done.

Texas A&M- as long as the Aggies get a victory over Iowa St. in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, they’ll get themselves into the NCAA Tournament. A loss will put them in trouble depending on how the other bubble teams fare.

Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Florida- the largest bubble of all the major conferences belongs to the SEC. Kentucky and Arkansas have first round byes, and I believe each have already played their way in. Arkansas looks like they’ll play Vandy in the quarters, so a loss wouldn’t be that damaging, though they can’t afford to lose to Auburn should they pull the upset. A win will guarantee Kentucky a spot, but they should be in already. Mississippi needs a victory over Georgia and then one over Kentucky to have a shot, but with a sub .500 conference record, they may have to win their semifinal match up as well. The same holds true for Florida if they beat Alabama and then Mississippi St., it may not be enough unless they make the final.

Ohio St.- I apologize for sticking a fork in the Buckeyes in my last post. I thought they were dead, and they were; I said they needed a miracle, and that miracle has 2/3 arrived. They beat Purdue and Michigan St. at home to finish 10-8 in the conference, and another win over Michigan St. at a neutral site in the Big Ten quarters will have Ohio St. dancing.

Massachusetts, Dayton, Temple, St. Joe’s- I don’t consider the A-10 a major conference team, though they have considerably large bubble as well. UMass has the strongest case and needs just a win in their quarterfinal game to guarantee a spot, although I think they'll be in either way. Dayton is a tough team to judge as they have dealt with many injury problems this year, and when they were healthy they did damage in the non conference. A first round win and then a win over Xavier would be huge, but I think Dayton needs to make the final to assure themselves a spot in the tourney. St. Joe’s has stumbled down the stretch, and because of the weakness of their draw in the conference tourney, they too will need to make the final. I believe Temple needs the same; an appearance in the conference title game.

In smaller conference news, a possible Conference USA semifinal match-up between Houston and UAB could be a play-in game, as well as one in the Mountain West between New Mexico and UNLV, though the latter two teams are in much better shape and have stronger cases than the former two.

Depending on what happens with all these bubble teams collectively, the requirements I give for each may not be necessary. Another determining factor will be whether or not the mid-major bubble teams take care of business in their conference tournaments. San Diego has already taken away an at-large bid by taking the WCC title from Saint Mary's and Gonzaga (who will both be in), as has South Alabama (most likely) by losing in the Sun Belt semis. Other mid-majors like VCU could fill up the bubble as well if they lose in their conference tournaments. One thing is for certain, and that is that nothing will be certain until the conference tournaments are done with. And probably not even then.

Bursting Bubbles

Here’s a list of some teams who seemed to be on their way towards earning a spot on the dance floor, but now may find themselves a wallflower come selection Sunday.

Mississippi- the Rebels had a terrific non conference schedule where they went undefeated, beating the likes of South Alabama, Winthrop, New Mexico, and Clemson. They started the season 13-0, but much like Clemson last year, the Rebels could be another team to go deep into the season undefeated and then undo themselves in conference play. Mississippi is just 5-9 in the SEC and 19-9 overall, and while victories over Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt help their cause, the Rebels lost too many games against poor teams near the bottom of the conference, and that's just not going to cut it.

Ohio St.- I think it’s finally time to say you can stick a fork in the Buckeyes. Ohio St. has to get credit for the non conference schedule they played against UNC, Butler, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, but not too much considering they lost all four of those games. They did beat two other bubble teams in Syracuse and Florida, but the problem for the Buckeyes is that that is as good as it gets. Ohio St. beat most of the people they were “supposed” to in the Big Ten, but none of the ones they weren’t. The Buckeyes have now lost four in a row and are a mere 8-8 in league play with Michigan St. and Purdue left. Simply put, Ohio St. needs a miracle.

Kansas St.- most people are blinded by the brilliance of Michael Beasley (which they should be), but don’t realize that Kansas St. has worked their way onto the bubble. The Wildcats are still 8-6 in what I believe to be an underrated Big 12, but they have lost five of six to drop to 18-10 overall. The only noteworthy victory the Wildcats have is over Kansas, which is a big note, and they have wins over Oklahoma and Texas A&M as well, but that is it. Kansas St. will need to win their last two games against Colorado and Iowa St. A falter in one of those games and the Wildcats could conceivably be on the outside looking in when all is said and done, barring a deep run in the conference tournament.

St. Joseph’s- Two weeks ago St. Joe’s was sitting in solid position for the NCAA tournament. The Red Hawks were 7-3 in the A-10, alone in second place, and 16-7 overall. When you are in the A-10, however, every game is precious, because every loss to a team like La Salle and Saint Louis hurts that much more, and that’s what happened to St. Joe’s. With those two losses, the Red Hawks are now tied for second in conference with Temple, and just half a game ahead of the next three teams. Now, St. Joe’s has Temple, Xavier, and Dayton, left, and a misstep (not Xavier) could cost them a trip to the dance.

Number one seeds for this week:

1-UNC
2-Memphis
3-UCLA
4-Tennessee


*Stats from ESPN.com

Walking In Memphis

#1 vs. #2. In state-rivalry. Arguably the two most athletic and electric teams in the nation. There won’t be a bigger college basketball game this regular season than tonight when #2 Tennessee travels to the western part of the state to take on rival, #1 and undefeated Memphis. Three weeks ago I said that Memphis would prevail in this game, but a lot has changed since then. I’m not saying that my pick has changed too, but there are several factors that will play a big part in the outcome.

My one bone that I have to pick with Tennessee is their consistency, on both ends of the court. Offensively, the inconsistency lies with the 3-point shot. Tennessee lives and dies by it, and when they are on they are untouchable. When Tennessee is hitting their threes their offense is unstoppable, as they are fourth in the nation averaging 83.9 points per game and have scored over 90 points seven times, eclipsing the century mark three times. In games where they struggle with the three point shot, their offense hits lulls occasionally and their games are much closer. The two games that stand out in my mind was the 104-82 victory over Florida in which they caught fire, followed by a 47-45 win over LSU where, well, the numbers speak for themselves.

The bigger concern is on the defensive end. Tennessee’s full court pressure is probably the best in the nation and frustrates offenses to no end. It allows the Volunteers to average 10 steals a game, which lead to easy buckets. The half court defense is another story. At times it almost looks as if Tennessee gets tired on defense and lets the other team score simply so they can go back on offense. But then again, maybe the LSU game does say something about the Tennessee defense. They didn’t let there offensive woes get in the way of earning a victory through their defense, and that says something about how far the Volunteers have come.

Memphis is undefeated, but they are not perfect. The Tigers have a lot of their own issues to worry about that they need to resolve. The one big, glaring discrepancy is at the charity stripe. At 58%, Memphis is near the bottom of Division I. Memphis has beaten a lot of very good basketball teams, but has had trouble against some Conference USA foes including a 1-point escape at UAB where they probably should have lost. Overall Memphis hasn’t been playing the same type of quality ball they were a month ago, and now they face off against maybe the one team that can match their athleticism. With a dangerous opponent like Tennessee that can score in a hurry and go on spurts with that full court pressure, I think that inability to capitalize on the freebies could finally come back to haunt the Tigers. The home-cooking is a great equalizer, but I’m still going to go against my previous pick from three weeks ago and take Tennessee in the best game of the year.



*Stats from ESPN.com

Who's HOT, Who's Not

HOT

I’m going to skip some of the obvious teams at the top like Memphis, Tennessee, UNC etc. and focus more on the teams up and coming. I’ll also skip UConn since I covered them in my last post.

TEXAS- The Longhorns have won 9 of their last 10 games, all coming in conference play, including a 3 point win over #3 Kansas at home. While some of those games were closer than they should’ve been (2 points over Colorado and Oklahoma St., overtime over Iowa St.) Texas just continues to win, led by super sophomore D.J. Augustin. With only one truly tough game left at Kansas St., Texas should continue this hot streak into the Big XII tourney, which they have a great shot at entering as the #1 seed.

BUTLER- Just win baby. That’s what the Bulldogs have been doing. They’re 13-2 in the underrated Horizon League and 24-2 over all, and they’ve creeped all the way up to #8 in the polls. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Bulldogs have taken care of business. A Horizon League tournament championship should have Butler in store for a favorable seed come March.

PURDUE- The surprising leaders of the Big Ten have been virtually unbeatable at home this year, at literally so in conference play (7-0). They have also proven they can win anywhere with their victory in Madison over Wisconsin where almost nobody walks in and beats Bo Ryan’s Badgers. Matt Painter has does a great job with this young team and their 12-1 mark in the Big Ten is as impressive a mark as any other major conference team has achieved this year.

LOUISVILLE- They are finally healthy and finally playing ball the way people were expecting them to. David Padgett has returned and the Cardinals have won 8 of 9, with that lone loss being by 2 points at UConn in a game where the Cardinals did not play their best. One of those victories was over #6 Georgetown at home, where the Cardinals defense put on a show giving up only 51 points. It has been the defense that Pitino's Louisville squad has been playing that has been the key to their success, as during this 9 game run they’ve given up only 59 points a contest. O yeah, and they’re first in the mighty Big East.

Not

Texas A&M- The Aggies have gone 5-5 since starting the season 15-1. While they did get those 5 wins consecutively, they were sandwiched between 3-game and 2-game skids, respectively. Some losses in conference were to teams that aren’t bad, but teams they probably should’ve beat in Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma St. have the Aggies at 6-5 in conference. This is good enough for 4th right now, but it’s only two games away from tenth. If they’re going to get back on the right track, A&M is going to have to be more consistent offensively.

Michigan St.- Tom Izzo’s bunch has dropped from first to fourth in the Big Ten in the last few weeks. After starting conference play 7-1 the Spartans have lost 3 of 4 and find themselves 3 ½ back of Purdue. The loss at Purdue was not that big of a shock, but a blowout at Indiana was not expected. Needless to say, the loss at Penn St. was a demoralizing one and it seems to have made an impact as that loss started the slide.

Arizona- Coach Kevin O’Neill has done a terrific job filling in for Lute Olsen this year, but the Wildcats are beginning to enter the danger zone. 3 losses in their last 4 games put the ‘Catz at 6-6 in the Pac-10 and 16-9 overall. Arizona has 6 games left, 3 of which are against Washington St., UCLA, and USC. It will be tough for Arizona to get in with a 9-9 record in conference and 12 losses overall unless they do damage in the Pac-10 tourney. To be safe they’ll need to take care of business in their other 3 games and win against one of those teams I mentioned, otherwise they’ll be cutting their tourney chances close.


*Stats from ESPN.com

UConn's Resurgence

Sorry for the time off between posts, it’s been a busy week. I know I’ve disappointed millions of fans.

After the first 16 games of the season, the UConn Huskies sat at a respectful 11-5, but it wasn’t as respectful as it sounds. UConn played a weak non-conference schedule and lost to the only tough teams they played; Memphis and Gonzaga. In fact, their most notable non-conference victories were over Gardner-Webb, who they beat twice, and that is only notable because of GWU’s early-season stunner over Kentucky. So even with a decent record, UConn was expected to hit some hard times entering Big East play, and they did. They had a 9-2 non-conference record, and then started 2-3 in the Big East leading them to that 11-5 record. That’s when things began to turn around for Husky nation.

The hot streak actually started on a cold note, when UConn lost guards Jerome Dyson and Doug Wiggins, both intricate and valuable players for the Huskies, due to an off the court legal incident. It’s safe to say that the result was a lot better than anticipated. UConn has gone 8-0 (including the win over Notre Dame tonight) since that 11-5 mark, with 6 of those wins coming in Big East play and 5 over top 25 teams. They also got a huge non-conference win over what was a top ten team at the time in Indiana, and now UConn is one of, if not the hottest team in the country.

While the loss of Dyson (Wiggins has since returned) has turned out to be a blessing in disguise, his return will only help the Huskies maintain their scolding temperature. The biggest reason for their success, however, has been to giant 7’3” Hasheem Thabeet. Literally before our eyes, Thabeet has turned from a somewhat uncoordinated, take-up-a-lot-of-space kind of big man who can’t really do too much on offense, to a legitimate threat on both ends of the court. Thabeet is averaging 11.2 points per game and 7.5 boards, but the most crucial stat is his 4.0 blocks per game, which is third in the nation. And while there are two people ahead of him in this category, believe me that there is no one more valuable in middle on defense. The number of shots Thabeet alters and empty possessions he yields for opponents are too many to be counted. There’s no reason why UConn will not continue this torrid pace into March.

Like I said, I will post my four #1 seeds about once a week, and here are mine for this week:

1-Memphis
2-Duke
3-Kansas
4-UCLA

I still have to put Kansas and UCLA ahead of Tennessee despite both teams losing this week. I just think they are more stable, solid teams all-around.


*Stats from ESPN.com

Why Duke will beat UNC

I’m here to give a couple reasons why Duke WILL beat UNC in Chapel Hill tonight. Both of the reasons have to do with the fact that Tar Heel point guard Ty Lawson will most likely not be able to play, and even if he does, no one could ever convince me he will be near 100%. Still, I felt it necessary to separate the reasons. Let’s begin.

Tempo- North Carolina is a team that thrives on getting up and down the court, getting as many possessions per game as possible, and running the opponent into the ground. The magic key that enables the Heels to do this, of course, is Ty Lawson. If he is unable to give it a go, UNC’s style will be severely hampered. Backup Quentin Thomas is not a bad player, but the shoes he’ll be trying to fill will be much bigger than he can handle. Lawson’s speed, handle, vision, and ability to make things happen in the open court are nearly unrivaled. North Carolina is second in the nation averaging 91.0 points per game, but without the head, their offense will struggle to accommodate. Another problem: Duke is right behind them at third in the nation in scoring with 85.7 points per game.

Pressure-While the Tar Heels won’t be able to replace the 5.7 assists per game they’ll be missing, their bigger problem will be with Duke’s pressure. Duke is a team that prides itself on its defensive pressure, and in-your-face style that tires the offense out and forces turnovers. In a year where Duke is scoring a lot of points, it is still the job they’re getting done on the defensive end that is allowing them to create turnovers which lead to easy baskets. Without Lawson to handle to Blue Devil pressure and keep Carolina steady, Duke is going to be able to pressure the ball, get out in the passing lanes and force turnovers.

The one area where the Heels still have an advantage over Duke is on the boards. Hansbrough will dominate the glass and should be able to have his way down low with the undersized Blue Devils and get to the free throw line as he’s done all season. The one game Duke lost was against a bigger, more physical Pittsburgh team, but they’ve beaten plenty of other bigger teams this season, and I think they will do it again tonight.


*stats from ESPN.com

Calling It A Knight

One of the biggest shocks of the college basketball season comes the day after one of the biggest shocks in football history. I like to think Knight resigned as head coach of Texas Tech to try and lure media attention away from the Patriots’ loss (can you still tell I’m crying myself to sleep over it?) Whatever Knight’s reason for resigning is, you can’t help but question his timing. Why in the middle of the season, with ten games remaining on the Red Raiders schedule? It doesn’t seem like Bobby Knight to not finish what he started. Some could question his age, where at 67 he’s getting up there and it’s not like he can coach forever. Others can say he did it to move over and make way so that the reigns could be handed over to his son Pat, who will serve as head coach for Texas Tech for at least the remainder of the season. Neither of these reasons for resigning explain why he did so in the middle of the season. The timing would suggest that Knight was after the 900 win plateau, but everyone knows he doesn’t care about that. Again, it seems un-Knight-like to seemingly abandon his team in mid-season, but he left them in good hands, and then again, it was never really Knight’s style to do anything that the media would consider “appropriate.”

To me it is almost certain that the way Knight went out indicates that he is done coaching. It’s over for him. He is clearly ready to move on to the next phase of his life, and all that is left of his coaching career is its legacy. And his legacy is undeniable. Knight leaves the game the all-time leading coach in men's Division I victories with 902, and he did so with three different teams; Army, Indiana, and Texas Tech. He won three NCAA Championships, all with Indiana, in 1976, 1981, and 1987, according to ESPN.com, and that 1976 Hoosier team was the last Division I men's team to complete a season undefeated. Despite all these accolades, Knight will be more known for his actions than his success. All his collisions with the media, tossing a chair across the court in the middle of a game, and allegedly choking a player all come to mind before his numbers do. The thing that remains constant about Knight, and what I love about him, is that he just doesn’t care. I don’t think he ultimately cares about his legacy or how the media portrays him, but there are enough people out there who support him and will not leave his legacy tarnished, and rightfully so. He leaves the game as one of the best coaches of all time, and probably the most talked about and famous...or infamous.


*I will address comments/questions on the comments page for each post

Who is the real Kansas St.?

Super Bowl Sunday has finally arrived. The underdog Giants take on the seemingly invincible Patriots as they try to complete an undefeated season. The Boston/New York rivalry has crossed over sports into football, and I am right in the middle of it at Quinnipiac University. I can’t think of a better time to discuss…college basketball.

The big story of the week was the game that took place in Manhattan, KS where freshman star Michael Beasley led Kansas State to a victory over #2 Kansas. It had been over twenty-four years since K-St. last beat Kansas at home, and they did so over a 20-0 team, one of only two undefeated teams left along with Memphis. It had finally seemed like K-St. was coming along and developing into a formidable team after an early season loss to George Mason and then back-to-back losses to Oregon and Notre Dame. The victory enabled the Wildcats to leap to the top of the Big 12 standings. Then came Saturday.

Kansas St. lost at Missouri by 3, and questions about who exactly the Wildcats were began to arise. Were they a team that was developing into a title contending threat with a freshman leader, the way Durant carried Texas into a dangerous tourney team last year? It seemed so after blowing out Texas A&M and then beating KU at home, but the loss to Missouri keeps their status uncertain. It could be just a letdown, but either way it is hard to get a read on where this team is going to be at the end of the season. Having a freshman in Beasley who averages 25 points and 12 boards a game doesn’t hurt; his only competition for freshman of the year will be O.J. Mayo. Only time will tell whether Huggins left his imprint on this team.

KU’s loss leaves only a single undefeated team in the nation, the #1 ranked Memphis Tigers. The fact that they’ve entered conference play in the powerhouse Conference USA (joke) means Memphis is one step away from finishing the season undefeated, with that lone step being a battle with Tennessee. Despite the weak conference schedule, Memphis depth of talent is undeniable and they played a nonconference schedule that is getting stronger by the day; wins over Oklahoma, Arizona, USC, Georgetown, and Gonzaga. I think the home court advantage will get them by a Tennessee team that is one of the few who can come close to matching the Tigers talent level. Both teams have been solid defensively, but with that much talent on the court the game is certain to be a barn-burner.

I’ll end my blogs by giving for 4 number one seeds for the tourney according to me that week. This week:

1-Memphis
2-Kansas
3-Duke
4-UCLA

Send in your comments and questions.