Not So Sweet Sixteen...

…for me at least. I was absolutely awful in my predictions for the first two rounds; it was a nightmare. I was 31-17, which is completely unacceptable if when you count the games which are “sure things” (well, those really don’t exist, but essentially sure things in the #1-#16 matchups). Not all is bad though. While I only had 9 of the sweet 16 teams correct (it really hurts to say that), I still have 7 of my elite 8 and all 4 final four teams. So I could make something of this mess I call my bracket. Anyways let’s see if I can do a little better job predicting the two rounds that will be played this weekend.

Sweet Sixteen Upsets:

#3 Louisville over #2 Tennessee- although I predicted this in my last post (which could be a mistake compared to what happened with the others), I’m going to stick with this upset. Going back even before the first two rounds to the SEC tourney, Tennessee has not looked like the same team they were during the regular season. Something has looked wrong, and if they decide to start J.P. Prince at the point again, their going to put up a huge number in the turnover column against Louisville’s pressure.

#10 Davidson over #3 Wisconsin- my heart is telling me I have to make this pick. I can’t go against Stephen Curry and the Davidson Wildcats. I’m fully on the Cinderella bandwagon. I’m convinced Curry cannot be stopped, and any team that can come from 17 down against Georgetown (which might as well be 30) in the second half and win gets my vote.

#7 West Virginia over #3 Xavier- I originally picked Xavier over Duke in this game, but clearly things have changed. Duke is not there, and instead there is a hot, dangerous West Virginia team awaiting the Musketeers. West Virginia easily handled Arizona’s athleticism in the first round to finish off the Wildcats disappointing season, and then took a punch from Duke early only to slowly wear them down the rest of the game. Xavier gave everyone a scare against Georgia, and then looked shaky at times against Purdue. This would only be an upset by seed.

I’m not going to change anything with my Elite 8; I still like my final four picks to get through to San Antonio. Maybe I should change them based upon how my other predictions fared out, but I’m going to give my bracket a chance to clean itself up and right the ship, which I think it will.

Brackets Baby

Well I don’t want to toot my own horn, but let’s just say this guy did a pretty good job in predicting the field for this year’s tournament. I got 64 of the 65 teams correct, and the two teams I mixed up, well one of them was my last team out, and the other surely had to be the NCAA’s last team out. I had Villanova as my last team in as of Sunday, but Georgia really messed me up with that win in the SEC Championship over Arkansas. That took away an at-large bid, and in my eye’s, that was Villanova’s. It’s not known for sure, but I’m confident that in the selection committee’s eyes Arizona St. had to be that team. There’s an argument for Virginia Tech, but if you look at their body of work over the course of the season, I don’t think they got snubbed at all. Sure they were 9-7 in the ACC, but they got the easy side of an unbalanced schedule as they played the four tourney teams (UNC, Duke, Clemson, and Miami) only once each in the regular season, losing all four. Their only top 50 RPI victory came in that victory over Miami in the ACC quarter. The Sun Devils beat Xavier, Stanford, USC, and Arizona (twice). They also had a better conference record than the Catz. Why, Georgia? I was so close.

And now I’ll move on to tourney picks, where karma should take over and screw me for just bragging. Let’s begin with the first round upsets (if I don’t list a game, that means I’m taking the chalk and picking the higher seed to win):

9 Arkansas over 8 Indiana- the Hogs have a load of talent and athleticism on that team, and their hot streak in the SEC tourney has me convinced they’ll beat the recently slumping Hoosiers who haven’t been the same team they lost Kelvin Sampson.

9 Kent St. over 8 UNLV- Al Fisher is a bonafide player and I’ve been high on the Golden Flashes down the stretch. They’ve beat some really good teams this year.

13 Siena over 4 Vanderbilt- I don’t know. I know that big upset is going to happen somewhere and I have a hunch. I don’t trust Vandy.

10 Davidson over 7 Gonzaga- Davidson has one 22 games in a row, and they’re playing in their home state. I think all those games they lost in the non conference to quality teams will help them in this one.

12 Temple over 5 Michigan St.- the typical 5-12 upset here. Temple is a hot team right now, and Michigan St. is too up and down for me.

10 St. Mary’s over 7 Miami- this seems to be a popular pick. St. Mary’s collapsed in the WCC semi against San Diego, but they have a ton of talent. Miami is no slouch either. It should be a really good game, but I give the edge to the Gaels.

11 Baylor over 6 Purdue- I just don’t like the way the Boilermakers have been playing recently, losing to Ohio St. and Illinois down the stretch, and I’m not impressed with the Big Ten to begin with.

10 Arizona over 7 West Virginia- this seems an odd pick because WVU played well in the Big East tourney and Arizona has underachieved all year, but my gut just tells me that Zona’s talent will prevail.

Second Round:

5 Notre Dame over 4 Washington St.- I like the offense of the Irish to conquer the defense of the Cougars in a really good game. In the end Harangody will be too much inside.

6 USC over 3 Wisconsin- the Trojans have a load of talent, and they’ve started to put it together really well towards the latter part of the season. I like offense over defense again in this one, but don’t think the Trojans can’t play a little defense of their own.

5 Drake over 4 UCONN- Drake is a deceptively athletic, REALLY good shooting team. UCONN has beasts on the front line, but Drake kind of reminds me of an improved version of the old Butler teams, and I like them to win this one.

(*notice no Cinderella teams in the Sweet 16. That could be a mistake)

Sweet 16:

3 Louisville over 2 Tennessee- will be one of the best games of the tournament. Two teams that will press each other and grind each other all day long. Only difference is that one wants to use the press to slow the game down, and the other to push the score up. I think Louisville gets their style of play across, and gets the W.

3 Xavier over 2 Duke- Duke looked stellar all season long, but towards the end, their flaws started to show. They have no post presence, and they rely too much on the three. Xavier has guards who can match their talent and quickness on the perimeter, and I think they will exceed it in this game.

Elite 8:

2 Texas over 1 Memphis- Memphis really got unlucky with this draw. Play a loaded Texas team in Houston? That’s going to be too much for Calipari’s poor free-throw shooting Tigers. Texas’ shooters Augustin and Abrams gun-sling their way into the Final Four.

Final Four:

1 Kansas over 1 UNC- I think Kansas’ guards have the advantage over the guards of the Tar Heels because of their depth and defense. Their depth on the front line as well will eventually wear down Hansbrough and the Heels.

1 UCLA over 2 Texas- in a rematch of a game played earlier this season, the Bruins will get some revenge. This time, their defense will suffocate the Longhorns and Love is unmatched inside.

Championship:

1 Kansas over 1 UCLA- KU gets the nod this year. They are an extremely talented, balanced team, and if they stay committed on the defensive end, they will be national champs. The key will be to try and contain Love as best as possible, and they will do that just enough to win it all.

Good luck to everyone in their predictions and pools, unless you’re in one that I am in as well. I’m not saying to take my advice on the picks, because when the tourney rolls around, no one is an expert (And I was never an expert to begin with anyways).

Tourney

Real quick before the selection show I'm going to list the bubble teams I think are in so I can take the glory when I get all the teams right.

Some of the bubble teams that are in:
Kentucky, Arkansas, St. Joe's, Texas A&M, Kansas St., South Alabama, St. Mary's

And the last four in:
Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon, Baylor

For me the last four slots were really close, and those four teams just edged out Villanova and Illinois St. After that was Dayton, UMass, and VCU.

People Are Dumb

I just felt the urge to write this particular blog post because of some of the stupidity that is out there trying to judge this year’s bubble situation. I read the Bubble Watch article for today on ESPN.com and was amazed at the sheer lack of intelligence by this one fool wjg24 in his comment. Below are two segments of what he wrote.

· 2. I believe most of Kentucky's problems lie in their losses, not in their wins. The loss to San Diego looks significantly better now, but the Gardner-Webb game still shines awfully brightly in a lot of people's minds. They did a hell of a job in conference play, but 6-7 in non-conference when the schedule wasn't that rough (Louisville, UNC and Indiana were the beasts there) is a difficult thing to overcome. Just ask Temple. I think they're in easily, probably a six or a seven seed...but I've been wrong before.
· 4. ASU's non-conferece sked included Cal Poly, Princeton, Florida GC, Delaware State, Coppin State, Montana State, Idaho and St. Francis. Yes,they did beat down Xavier, but that's not much of a slate. UA, on the other hand, went to Kansas UNLV and Memphis. Granted, they also had Adams St and UMKC, but for the most part they made an attempt at a difficult sked, plus won 10 total games against the top 100, by far the most among teams on the bubble. Hell...a 3rd of their slate was against the top 100. UA's in, ASU needs a win.

I would like to apologize for putting the two preceding paragraphs in the blog, as they are offensive to any person with a spec of knowledge about college basketball. Let’s look at the first point, where the fan compares Kentucky’s non conference to Temple’s, and then declares the Owls are a lock for the tourney. Are you f***ing kidding me? Let’s take a look at Temple’s non conference losses: Duke, Tennessee, Florida, Villanova, Providence, Akron, and College of Charleston. Their best non conference win was over OHIO. They did beat Xavier in conference, and their next best wins are over fellow bubblers UMass and St. Joe’s while they lost to Dayton. So, I’m confused, what makes Temple “in easily,” as a “six or seven seed?” Granted Kentucky’s non conference was no gem either as they didn’t beat anyone, but they did beat Tennessee, Vandy, Florida, Mississippi, and Arkansas in conference. I’m not saying you can’t argue against Kentucky’s non conference schedule, but why do you do it with Temple? And why do you declare Temple easily in? It just pisses me off.

That first point was more of a personal argument/disagreement, but this second one is more general. In the second point I copied, the commenter truly displays his stupidity. He argues Arizona State’s non conference victories over those teams listed, and then follows that by stating Arizona’s trips to Kansas, UNLV, and Memphis. Well guess what, Arizona lost to Kansas and Memphis. That leaves UNLV as their victory. Tell me, which victory is better, Xavier or UNLV? Right, so how is this guy arguing for ‘Zona? Strength of schedule I believe is an extremely overrated tool for measuring a teams resume. He lists those teams that Arizona played, but the fact is they lost two of those games. The important stat is not the strength of the team’s you play, it’s the strength of the team’s you BEAT. The only time strength of team’s you play becomes a factor is if a team loses any of those cupcake games to teams they are supposed to beat. Otherwise, the only important thing is the teams you defeat. For example, give credit to Arizona for playing those teams, but the fact is their only victory of the three was over UNLV, and while Arizona St. beat a bunch of those cupcakes, they then beat Xavier. So, for that slate of games compared between the two teams, ASU has the advantage. It would be different if they lost to one of those cupcakes, but they didn’t. This genius also forgets to realize that ASU beat Arizona both times they played each other this year.

Sorry, I just read that comment and needed to get this off my chest. While I’m at it, I might as well take some time to wave goodbye to the following team’s NCAA Tournament hopes as they lost today and will join the company of Syracuse in the NIT. Adios Florida, UAB, Houston, Maryland, and Mississippi. And congratulations to these proceeding teams for stubbing their toe when they could’ve locked up a bid: Oregon, Arizona St., Baylor, UMass, Villanova, and Dayton. Now you will all have to sweat it out for the next three days when you could have avoided that with a win. Here's a question: who wants to be in the tourney?

Tell Me What I Need To Do

The bubble situation is so complicated this year, I can’t give a Joe Lunardi-esque last four in, last four out type deal right now. Instead, here is a list of some major conference bubble teams and what they need to do in their league tournaments to guarantee a spot in the big dance (aside from winning it).

Virginia Tech, Maryland- Neither of these teams are in good shape, and Maryland especially has blown chances down the stretch to put themselves on the right side of the bubble. I believe anything less than making the conference title game will not be enough for either team.

Syracuse, Villanova- These two teams play each other in the first round of the Big East tournament in the 8-9 match up. It’s really more than that though. I think it’s a play-in game: winner goes dancing, loser to the NIT, and Villanova has much more at stake since their credentials aren’t as good as Syracuse’s, who would just get clipped if they lost.

Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon- for all these teams, a first round victory (which would be quarterfinal victory for Oregon and Arizona St.) should be enough to get them in, and would give the Pac-10 seven teams in. Arizona St. faces USC and Oregon faces Washington St., and a win in either of those would certainly ensure a trip to the dance, though losses could very well still see both teams in because of the quality of their opponents. Arizona absolutely has to beat the terrible Oregon St. Beavers who are winless in league play, or they’re done.

Texas A&M- as long as the Aggies get a victory over Iowa St. in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, they’ll get themselves into the NCAA Tournament. A loss will put them in trouble depending on how the other bubble teams fare.

Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Florida- the largest bubble of all the major conferences belongs to the SEC. Kentucky and Arkansas have first round byes, and I believe each have already played their way in. Arkansas looks like they’ll play Vandy in the quarters, so a loss wouldn’t be that damaging, though they can’t afford to lose to Auburn should they pull the upset. A win will guarantee Kentucky a spot, but they should be in already. Mississippi needs a victory over Georgia and then one over Kentucky to have a shot, but with a sub .500 conference record, they may have to win their semifinal match up as well. The same holds true for Florida if they beat Alabama and then Mississippi St., it may not be enough unless they make the final.

Ohio St.- I apologize for sticking a fork in the Buckeyes in my last post. I thought they were dead, and they were; I said they needed a miracle, and that miracle has 2/3 arrived. They beat Purdue and Michigan St. at home to finish 10-8 in the conference, and another win over Michigan St. at a neutral site in the Big Ten quarters will have Ohio St. dancing.

Massachusetts, Dayton, Temple, St. Joe’s- I don’t consider the A-10 a major conference team, though they have considerably large bubble as well. UMass has the strongest case and needs just a win in their quarterfinal game to guarantee a spot, although I think they'll be in either way. Dayton is a tough team to judge as they have dealt with many injury problems this year, and when they were healthy they did damage in the non conference. A first round win and then a win over Xavier would be huge, but I think Dayton needs to make the final to assure themselves a spot in the tourney. St. Joe’s has stumbled down the stretch, and because of the weakness of their draw in the conference tourney, they too will need to make the final. I believe Temple needs the same; an appearance in the conference title game.

In smaller conference news, a possible Conference USA semifinal match-up between Houston and UAB could be a play-in game, as well as one in the Mountain West between New Mexico and UNLV, though the latter two teams are in much better shape and have stronger cases than the former two.

Depending on what happens with all these bubble teams collectively, the requirements I give for each may not be necessary. Another determining factor will be whether or not the mid-major bubble teams take care of business in their conference tournaments. San Diego has already taken away an at-large bid by taking the WCC title from Saint Mary's and Gonzaga (who will both be in), as has South Alabama (most likely) by losing in the Sun Belt semis. Other mid-majors like VCU could fill up the bubble as well if they lose in their conference tournaments. One thing is for certain, and that is that nothing will be certain until the conference tournaments are done with. And probably not even then.

Bursting Bubbles

Here’s a list of some teams who seemed to be on their way towards earning a spot on the dance floor, but now may find themselves a wallflower come selection Sunday.

Mississippi- the Rebels had a terrific non conference schedule where they went undefeated, beating the likes of South Alabama, Winthrop, New Mexico, and Clemson. They started the season 13-0, but much like Clemson last year, the Rebels could be another team to go deep into the season undefeated and then undo themselves in conference play. Mississippi is just 5-9 in the SEC and 19-9 overall, and while victories over Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt help their cause, the Rebels lost too many games against poor teams near the bottom of the conference, and that's just not going to cut it.

Ohio St.- I think it’s finally time to say you can stick a fork in the Buckeyes. Ohio St. has to get credit for the non conference schedule they played against UNC, Butler, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, but not too much considering they lost all four of those games. They did beat two other bubble teams in Syracuse and Florida, but the problem for the Buckeyes is that that is as good as it gets. Ohio St. beat most of the people they were “supposed” to in the Big Ten, but none of the ones they weren’t. The Buckeyes have now lost four in a row and are a mere 8-8 in league play with Michigan St. and Purdue left. Simply put, Ohio St. needs a miracle.

Kansas St.- most people are blinded by the brilliance of Michael Beasley (which they should be), but don’t realize that Kansas St. has worked their way onto the bubble. The Wildcats are still 8-6 in what I believe to be an underrated Big 12, but they have lost five of six to drop to 18-10 overall. The only noteworthy victory the Wildcats have is over Kansas, which is a big note, and they have wins over Oklahoma and Texas A&M as well, but that is it. Kansas St. will need to win their last two games against Colorado and Iowa St. A falter in one of those games and the Wildcats could conceivably be on the outside looking in when all is said and done, barring a deep run in the conference tournament.

St. Joseph’s- Two weeks ago St. Joe’s was sitting in solid position for the NCAA tournament. The Red Hawks were 7-3 in the A-10, alone in second place, and 16-7 overall. When you are in the A-10, however, every game is precious, because every loss to a team like La Salle and Saint Louis hurts that much more, and that’s what happened to St. Joe’s. With those two losses, the Red Hawks are now tied for second in conference with Temple, and just half a game ahead of the next three teams. Now, St. Joe’s has Temple, Xavier, and Dayton, left, and a misstep (not Xavier) could cost them a trip to the dance.

Number one seeds for this week:

1-UNC
2-Memphis
3-UCLA
4-Tennessee


*Stats from ESPN.com