Tell Me What I Need To Do

The bubble situation is so complicated this year, I can’t give a Joe Lunardi-esque last four in, last four out type deal right now. Instead, here is a list of some major conference bubble teams and what they need to do in their league tournaments to guarantee a spot in the big dance (aside from winning it).

Virginia Tech, Maryland- Neither of these teams are in good shape, and Maryland especially has blown chances down the stretch to put themselves on the right side of the bubble. I believe anything less than making the conference title game will not be enough for either team.

Syracuse, Villanova- These two teams play each other in the first round of the Big East tournament in the 8-9 match up. It’s really more than that though. I think it’s a play-in game: winner goes dancing, loser to the NIT, and Villanova has much more at stake since their credentials aren’t as good as Syracuse’s, who would just get clipped if they lost.

Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon- for all these teams, a first round victory (which would be quarterfinal victory for Oregon and Arizona St.) should be enough to get them in, and would give the Pac-10 seven teams in. Arizona St. faces USC and Oregon faces Washington St., and a win in either of those would certainly ensure a trip to the dance, though losses could very well still see both teams in because of the quality of their opponents. Arizona absolutely has to beat the terrible Oregon St. Beavers who are winless in league play, or they’re done.

Texas A&M- as long as the Aggies get a victory over Iowa St. in the first round of the Big 12 tourney, they’ll get themselves into the NCAA Tournament. A loss will put them in trouble depending on how the other bubble teams fare.

Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Florida- the largest bubble of all the major conferences belongs to the SEC. Kentucky and Arkansas have first round byes, and I believe each have already played their way in. Arkansas looks like they’ll play Vandy in the quarters, so a loss wouldn’t be that damaging, though they can’t afford to lose to Auburn should they pull the upset. A win will guarantee Kentucky a spot, but they should be in already. Mississippi needs a victory over Georgia and then one over Kentucky to have a shot, but with a sub .500 conference record, they may have to win their semifinal match up as well. The same holds true for Florida if they beat Alabama and then Mississippi St., it may not be enough unless they make the final.

Ohio St.- I apologize for sticking a fork in the Buckeyes in my last post. I thought they were dead, and they were; I said they needed a miracle, and that miracle has 2/3 arrived. They beat Purdue and Michigan St. at home to finish 10-8 in the conference, and another win over Michigan St. at a neutral site in the Big Ten quarters will have Ohio St. dancing.

Massachusetts, Dayton, Temple, St. Joe’s- I don’t consider the A-10 a major conference team, though they have considerably large bubble as well. UMass has the strongest case and needs just a win in their quarterfinal game to guarantee a spot, although I think they'll be in either way. Dayton is a tough team to judge as they have dealt with many injury problems this year, and when they were healthy they did damage in the non conference. A first round win and then a win over Xavier would be huge, but I think Dayton needs to make the final to assure themselves a spot in the tourney. St. Joe’s has stumbled down the stretch, and because of the weakness of their draw in the conference tourney, they too will need to make the final. I believe Temple needs the same; an appearance in the conference title game.

In smaller conference news, a possible Conference USA semifinal match-up between Houston and UAB could be a play-in game, as well as one in the Mountain West between New Mexico and UNLV, though the latter two teams are in much better shape and have stronger cases than the former two.

Depending on what happens with all these bubble teams collectively, the requirements I give for each may not be necessary. Another determining factor will be whether or not the mid-major bubble teams take care of business in their conference tournaments. San Diego has already taken away an at-large bid by taking the WCC title from Saint Mary's and Gonzaga (who will both be in), as has South Alabama (most likely) by losing in the Sun Belt semis. Other mid-majors like VCU could fill up the bubble as well if they lose in their conference tournaments. One thing is for certain, and that is that nothing will be certain until the conference tournaments are done with. And probably not even then.