Walking In Memphis

#1 vs. #2. In state-rivalry. Arguably the two most athletic and electric teams in the nation. There won’t be a bigger college basketball game this regular season than tonight when #2 Tennessee travels to the western part of the state to take on rival, #1 and undefeated Memphis. Three weeks ago I said that Memphis would prevail in this game, but a lot has changed since then. I’m not saying that my pick has changed too, but there are several factors that will play a big part in the outcome.

My one bone that I have to pick with Tennessee is their consistency, on both ends of the court. Offensively, the inconsistency lies with the 3-point shot. Tennessee lives and dies by it, and when they are on they are untouchable. When Tennessee is hitting their threes their offense is unstoppable, as they are fourth in the nation averaging 83.9 points per game and have scored over 90 points seven times, eclipsing the century mark three times. In games where they struggle with the three point shot, their offense hits lulls occasionally and their games are much closer. The two games that stand out in my mind was the 104-82 victory over Florida in which they caught fire, followed by a 47-45 win over LSU where, well, the numbers speak for themselves.

The bigger concern is on the defensive end. Tennessee’s full court pressure is probably the best in the nation and frustrates offenses to no end. It allows the Volunteers to average 10 steals a game, which lead to easy buckets. The half court defense is another story. At times it almost looks as if Tennessee gets tired on defense and lets the other team score simply so they can go back on offense. But then again, maybe the LSU game does say something about the Tennessee defense. They didn’t let there offensive woes get in the way of earning a victory through their defense, and that says something about how far the Volunteers have come.

Memphis is undefeated, but they are not perfect. The Tigers have a lot of their own issues to worry about that they need to resolve. The one big, glaring discrepancy is at the charity stripe. At 58%, Memphis is near the bottom of Division I. Memphis has beaten a lot of very good basketball teams, but has had trouble against some Conference USA foes including a 1-point escape at UAB where they probably should have lost. Overall Memphis hasn’t been playing the same type of quality ball they were a month ago, and now they face off against maybe the one team that can match their athleticism. With a dangerous opponent like Tennessee that can score in a hurry and go on spurts with that full court pressure, I think that inability to capitalize on the freebies could finally come back to haunt the Tigers. The home-cooking is a great equalizer, but I’m still going to go against my previous pick from three weeks ago and take Tennessee in the best game of the year.



*Stats from ESPN.com

Who's HOT, Who's Not

HOT

I’m going to skip some of the obvious teams at the top like Memphis, Tennessee, UNC etc. and focus more on the teams up and coming. I’ll also skip UConn since I covered them in my last post.

TEXAS- The Longhorns have won 9 of their last 10 games, all coming in conference play, including a 3 point win over #3 Kansas at home. While some of those games were closer than they should’ve been (2 points over Colorado and Oklahoma St., overtime over Iowa St.) Texas just continues to win, led by super sophomore D.J. Augustin. With only one truly tough game left at Kansas St., Texas should continue this hot streak into the Big XII tourney, which they have a great shot at entering as the #1 seed.

BUTLER- Just win baby. That’s what the Bulldogs have been doing. They’re 13-2 in the underrated Horizon League and 24-2 over all, and they’ve creeped all the way up to #8 in the polls. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Bulldogs have taken care of business. A Horizon League tournament championship should have Butler in store for a favorable seed come March.

PURDUE- The surprising leaders of the Big Ten have been virtually unbeatable at home this year, at literally so in conference play (7-0). They have also proven they can win anywhere with their victory in Madison over Wisconsin where almost nobody walks in and beats Bo Ryan’s Badgers. Matt Painter has does a great job with this young team and their 12-1 mark in the Big Ten is as impressive a mark as any other major conference team has achieved this year.

LOUISVILLE- They are finally healthy and finally playing ball the way people were expecting them to. David Padgett has returned and the Cardinals have won 8 of 9, with that lone loss being by 2 points at UConn in a game where the Cardinals did not play their best. One of those victories was over #6 Georgetown at home, where the Cardinals defense put on a show giving up only 51 points. It has been the defense that Pitino's Louisville squad has been playing that has been the key to their success, as during this 9 game run they’ve given up only 59 points a contest. O yeah, and they’re first in the mighty Big East.

Not

Texas A&M- The Aggies have gone 5-5 since starting the season 15-1. While they did get those 5 wins consecutively, they were sandwiched between 3-game and 2-game skids, respectively. Some losses in conference were to teams that aren’t bad, but teams they probably should’ve beat in Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma St. have the Aggies at 6-5 in conference. This is good enough for 4th right now, but it’s only two games away from tenth. If they’re going to get back on the right track, A&M is going to have to be more consistent offensively.

Michigan St.- Tom Izzo’s bunch has dropped from first to fourth in the Big Ten in the last few weeks. After starting conference play 7-1 the Spartans have lost 3 of 4 and find themselves 3 ½ back of Purdue. The loss at Purdue was not that big of a shock, but a blowout at Indiana was not expected. Needless to say, the loss at Penn St. was a demoralizing one and it seems to have made an impact as that loss started the slide.

Arizona- Coach Kevin O’Neill has done a terrific job filling in for Lute Olsen this year, but the Wildcats are beginning to enter the danger zone. 3 losses in their last 4 games put the ‘Catz at 6-6 in the Pac-10 and 16-9 overall. Arizona has 6 games left, 3 of which are against Washington St., UCLA, and USC. It will be tough for Arizona to get in with a 9-9 record in conference and 12 losses overall unless they do damage in the Pac-10 tourney. To be safe they’ll need to take care of business in their other 3 games and win against one of those teams I mentioned, otherwise they’ll be cutting their tourney chances close.


*Stats from ESPN.com

UConn's Resurgence

Sorry for the time off between posts, it’s been a busy week. I know I’ve disappointed millions of fans.

After the first 16 games of the season, the UConn Huskies sat at a respectful 11-5, but it wasn’t as respectful as it sounds. UConn played a weak non-conference schedule and lost to the only tough teams they played; Memphis and Gonzaga. In fact, their most notable non-conference victories were over Gardner-Webb, who they beat twice, and that is only notable because of GWU’s early-season stunner over Kentucky. So even with a decent record, UConn was expected to hit some hard times entering Big East play, and they did. They had a 9-2 non-conference record, and then started 2-3 in the Big East leading them to that 11-5 record. That’s when things began to turn around for Husky nation.

The hot streak actually started on a cold note, when UConn lost guards Jerome Dyson and Doug Wiggins, both intricate and valuable players for the Huskies, due to an off the court legal incident. It’s safe to say that the result was a lot better than anticipated. UConn has gone 8-0 (including the win over Notre Dame tonight) since that 11-5 mark, with 6 of those wins coming in Big East play and 5 over top 25 teams. They also got a huge non-conference win over what was a top ten team at the time in Indiana, and now UConn is one of, if not the hottest team in the country.

While the loss of Dyson (Wiggins has since returned) has turned out to be a blessing in disguise, his return will only help the Huskies maintain their scolding temperature. The biggest reason for their success, however, has been to giant 7’3” Hasheem Thabeet. Literally before our eyes, Thabeet has turned from a somewhat uncoordinated, take-up-a-lot-of-space kind of big man who can’t really do too much on offense, to a legitimate threat on both ends of the court. Thabeet is averaging 11.2 points per game and 7.5 boards, but the most crucial stat is his 4.0 blocks per game, which is third in the nation. And while there are two people ahead of him in this category, believe me that there is no one more valuable in middle on defense. The number of shots Thabeet alters and empty possessions he yields for opponents are too many to be counted. There’s no reason why UConn will not continue this torrid pace into March.

Like I said, I will post my four #1 seeds about once a week, and here are mine for this week:

1-Memphis
2-Duke
3-Kansas
4-UCLA

I still have to put Kansas and UCLA ahead of Tennessee despite both teams losing this week. I just think they are more stable, solid teams all-around.


*Stats from ESPN.com

Why Duke will beat UNC

I’m here to give a couple reasons why Duke WILL beat UNC in Chapel Hill tonight. Both of the reasons have to do with the fact that Tar Heel point guard Ty Lawson will most likely not be able to play, and even if he does, no one could ever convince me he will be near 100%. Still, I felt it necessary to separate the reasons. Let’s begin.

Tempo- North Carolina is a team that thrives on getting up and down the court, getting as many possessions per game as possible, and running the opponent into the ground. The magic key that enables the Heels to do this, of course, is Ty Lawson. If he is unable to give it a go, UNC’s style will be severely hampered. Backup Quentin Thomas is not a bad player, but the shoes he’ll be trying to fill will be much bigger than he can handle. Lawson’s speed, handle, vision, and ability to make things happen in the open court are nearly unrivaled. North Carolina is second in the nation averaging 91.0 points per game, but without the head, their offense will struggle to accommodate. Another problem: Duke is right behind them at third in the nation in scoring with 85.7 points per game.

Pressure-While the Tar Heels won’t be able to replace the 5.7 assists per game they’ll be missing, their bigger problem will be with Duke’s pressure. Duke is a team that prides itself on its defensive pressure, and in-your-face style that tires the offense out and forces turnovers. In a year where Duke is scoring a lot of points, it is still the job they’re getting done on the defensive end that is allowing them to create turnovers which lead to easy baskets. Without Lawson to handle to Blue Devil pressure and keep Carolina steady, Duke is going to be able to pressure the ball, get out in the passing lanes and force turnovers.

The one area where the Heels still have an advantage over Duke is on the boards. Hansbrough will dominate the glass and should be able to have his way down low with the undersized Blue Devils and get to the free throw line as he’s done all season. The one game Duke lost was against a bigger, more physical Pittsburgh team, but they’ve beaten plenty of other bigger teams this season, and I think they will do it again tonight.


*stats from ESPN.com

Calling It A Knight

One of the biggest shocks of the college basketball season comes the day after one of the biggest shocks in football history. I like to think Knight resigned as head coach of Texas Tech to try and lure media attention away from the Patriots’ loss (can you still tell I’m crying myself to sleep over it?) Whatever Knight’s reason for resigning is, you can’t help but question his timing. Why in the middle of the season, with ten games remaining on the Red Raiders schedule? It doesn’t seem like Bobby Knight to not finish what he started. Some could question his age, where at 67 he’s getting up there and it’s not like he can coach forever. Others can say he did it to move over and make way so that the reigns could be handed over to his son Pat, who will serve as head coach for Texas Tech for at least the remainder of the season. Neither of these reasons for resigning explain why he did so in the middle of the season. The timing would suggest that Knight was after the 900 win plateau, but everyone knows he doesn’t care about that. Again, it seems un-Knight-like to seemingly abandon his team in mid-season, but he left them in good hands, and then again, it was never really Knight’s style to do anything that the media would consider “appropriate.”

To me it is almost certain that the way Knight went out indicates that he is done coaching. It’s over for him. He is clearly ready to move on to the next phase of his life, and all that is left of his coaching career is its legacy. And his legacy is undeniable. Knight leaves the game the all-time leading coach in men's Division I victories with 902, and he did so with three different teams; Army, Indiana, and Texas Tech. He won three NCAA Championships, all with Indiana, in 1976, 1981, and 1987, according to ESPN.com, and that 1976 Hoosier team was the last Division I men's team to complete a season undefeated. Despite all these accolades, Knight will be more known for his actions than his success. All his collisions with the media, tossing a chair across the court in the middle of a game, and allegedly choking a player all come to mind before his numbers do. The thing that remains constant about Knight, and what I love about him, is that he just doesn’t care. I don’t think he ultimately cares about his legacy or how the media portrays him, but there are enough people out there who support him and will not leave his legacy tarnished, and rightfully so. He leaves the game as one of the best coaches of all time, and probably the most talked about and famous...or infamous.


*I will address comments/questions on the comments page for each post

Who is the real Kansas St.?

Super Bowl Sunday has finally arrived. The underdog Giants take on the seemingly invincible Patriots as they try to complete an undefeated season. The Boston/New York rivalry has crossed over sports into football, and I am right in the middle of it at Quinnipiac University. I can’t think of a better time to discuss…college basketball.

The big story of the week was the game that took place in Manhattan, KS where freshman star Michael Beasley led Kansas State to a victory over #2 Kansas. It had been over twenty-four years since K-St. last beat Kansas at home, and they did so over a 20-0 team, one of only two undefeated teams left along with Memphis. It had finally seemed like K-St. was coming along and developing into a formidable team after an early season loss to George Mason and then back-to-back losses to Oregon and Notre Dame. The victory enabled the Wildcats to leap to the top of the Big 12 standings. Then came Saturday.

Kansas St. lost at Missouri by 3, and questions about who exactly the Wildcats were began to arise. Were they a team that was developing into a title contending threat with a freshman leader, the way Durant carried Texas into a dangerous tourney team last year? It seemed so after blowing out Texas A&M and then beating KU at home, but the loss to Missouri keeps their status uncertain. It could be just a letdown, but either way it is hard to get a read on where this team is going to be at the end of the season. Having a freshman in Beasley who averages 25 points and 12 boards a game doesn’t hurt; his only competition for freshman of the year will be O.J. Mayo. Only time will tell whether Huggins left his imprint on this team.

KU’s loss leaves only a single undefeated team in the nation, the #1 ranked Memphis Tigers. The fact that they’ve entered conference play in the powerhouse Conference USA (joke) means Memphis is one step away from finishing the season undefeated, with that lone step being a battle with Tennessee. Despite the weak conference schedule, Memphis depth of talent is undeniable and they played a nonconference schedule that is getting stronger by the day; wins over Oklahoma, Arizona, USC, Georgetown, and Gonzaga. I think the home court advantage will get them by a Tennessee team that is one of the few who can come close to matching the Tigers talent level. Both teams have been solid defensively, but with that much talent on the court the game is certain to be a barn-burner.

I’ll end my blogs by giving for 4 number one seeds for the tourney according to me that week. This week:

1-Memphis
2-Kansas
3-Duke
4-UCLA

Send in your comments and questions.