#1 vs. #2. In state-rivalry. Arguably the two most athletic and electric teams in the nation. There won’t be a bigger college basketball game this regular season than tonight when #2 Tennessee travels to the western part of the state to take on rival, #1 and undefeated Memphis. Three weeks ago I said that Memphis would prevail in this game, but a lot has changed since then. I’m not saying that my pick has changed too, but there are several factors that will play a big part in the outcome.
My one bone that I have to pick with Tennessee is their consistency, on both ends of the court. Offensively, the inconsistency lies with the 3-point shot. Tennessee lives and dies by it, and when they are on they are untouchable. When Tennessee is hitting their threes their offense is unstoppable, as they are fourth in the nation averaging 83.9 points per game and have scored over 90 points seven times, eclipsing the century mark three times. In games where they struggle with the three point shot, their offense hits lulls occasionally and their games are much closer. The two games that stand out in my mind was the 104-82 victory over Florida in which they caught fire, followed by a 47-45 win over LSU where, well, the numbers speak for themselves.
The bigger concern is on the defensive end. Tennessee’s full court pressure is probably the best in the nation and frustrates offenses to no end. It allows the Volunteers to average 10 steals a game, which lead to easy buckets. The half court defense is another story. At times it almost looks as if Tennessee gets tired on defense and lets the other team score simply so they can go back on offense. But then again, maybe the LSU game does say something about the Tennessee defense. They didn’t let there offensive woes get in the way of earning a victory through their defense, and that says something about how far the Volunteers have come.
Memphis is undefeated, but they are not perfect. The Tigers have a lot of their own issues to worry about that they need to resolve. The one big, glaring discrepancy is at the charity stripe. At 58%, Memphis is near the bottom of Division I. Memphis has beaten a lot of very good basketball teams, but has had trouble against some Conference USA foes including a 1-point escape at UAB where they probably should have lost. Overall Memphis hasn’t been playing the same type of quality ball they were a month ago, and now they face off against maybe the one team that can match their athleticism. With a dangerous opponent like Tennessee that can score in a hurry and go on spurts with that full court pressure, I think that inability to capitalize on the freebies could finally come back to haunt the Tigers. The home-cooking is a great equalizer, but I’m still going to go against my previous pick from three weeks ago and take Tennessee in the best game of the year.
*Stats from ESPN.com
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16 years ago
2 comments:
Bobbo I have to disagree with you about Tennessee's half court defense. I feel like you are basing your argument on previous Tennessee teams that didn't really know how to play defense and didn't resemble Bruce Pearl teams at all other than the frantic pace they attempt to create. This team is much closer to what Pearl desires and achieved at UW Milwaukee; a team that forces turnovers with their organized press but can also grind it out in the half court when necessary. I think they did show this against Memphis, and yes I did pick Tennessee to win, as they consistently forces Memphis to shoot threes and did not allow Memphis' great athletes to get to the rim as much as they are used to.
However I do think that Tennessee's real weakness lies in their lack of either a truly great point guard or big man, as well as their garbage free throw shooting. Because they were playing Memphis, one of the teams who shoots the ball worse than they do at the line, this factor was overlooked, but I believe they do shoot about 64% from the line, which is terrible and could definitely cost them a game down the stretch. I think that each of these factors will eventually contribute to a heartbreaking tournament loss and I cannot even put Tennessee on my list of possible National Champions because of them. I think that Tennessee is very good and will make a deep tournament run, probably Elite 8, but possibly as deep as the Final Four, but will be dropped by a team such as North Carolina or UCLA which possess all of the three qualities Tennessee lacks, as I outlined above. How do you feel about that?
I definitely agree that Bruce Pearl has finally successfully implemented his defensive system that worked so well at UW Milwaukee, and that Tennessee's press is second to none (only rivaled by perhaps Louisville). I would also agree with you that Tennessee can grind it out in the half court, but I believe at times they look unwilling to do so. If they can fully devote themselves to that, there's no doubt their defense is top notch.
The fact that Tennessee does not have a dominant big man does scare me. Tyler Smith is a great player, but he's simply not enough. If the guards have an off night shooting from distance, where does Tennessee turn? This turns me off from picking the Volunteers to go the distance more than the poor free throw shooting. Their have been poor free throw shooting teams that have won it all, all you have to do is look at Florida last year who didnt shoot it well from the stripe as a team. It does make them more suceptive to an upset however. Ultimately, I don't see them getting past a UCLA or UNC either.
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