I’m here to give a couple reasons why Duke WILL beat UNC in Chapel Hill tonight. Both of the reasons have to do with the fact that Tar Heel point guard Ty Lawson will most likely not be able to play, and even if he does, no one could ever convince me he will be near 100%. Still, I felt it necessary to separate the reasons. Let’s begin.
Tempo- North Carolina is a team that thrives on getting up and down the court, getting as many possessions per game as possible, and running the opponent into the ground. The magic key that enables the Heels to do this, of course, is Ty Lawson. If he is unable to give it a go, UNC’s style will be severely hampered. Backup Quentin Thomas is not a bad player, but the shoes he’ll be trying to fill will be much bigger than he can handle. Lawson’s speed, handle, vision, and ability to make things happen in the open court are nearly unrivaled. North Carolina is second in the nation averaging 91.0 points per game, but without the head, their offense will struggle to accommodate. Another problem: Duke is right behind them at third in the nation in scoring with 85.7 points per game.
Pressure-While the Tar Heels won’t be able to replace the 5.7 assists per game they’ll be missing, their bigger problem will be with Duke’s pressure. Duke is a team that prides itself on its defensive pressure, and in-your-face style that tires the offense out and forces turnovers. In a year where Duke is scoring a lot of points, it is still the job they’re getting done on the defensive end that is allowing them to create turnovers which lead to easy baskets. Without Lawson to handle to Blue Devil pressure and keep Carolina steady, Duke is going to be able to pressure the ball, get out in the passing lanes and force turnovers.
The one area where the Heels still have an advantage over Duke is on the boards. Hansbrough will dominate the glass and should be able to have his way down low with the undersized Blue Devils and get to the free throw line as he’s done all season. The one game Duke lost was against a bigger, more physical Pittsburgh team, but they’ve beaten plenty of other bigger teams this season, and I think they will do it again tonight.
*stats from ESPN.com
UUUGGGHHH
16 years ago
2 comments:
I am going to have to disagree with you on this one, Robert G. Schilling the ninth.. I feel that Duke is just not at the same level as UNC.. Too be honest I really do not like either team they have been the juggernauts of the ACC for as long as I can remember and I would just like to see some other teams excel in the highly competitive ACC. Overall this is a down year for the ACC. CJC signing out for now!?!?!?!?
Hind sight is 20/20, but your assessment of the game before being played is exactly what happened. Duke's pressure and intensity are too much for almost any opponent. Well stated.
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