The Field

Oh boy. Never before have a felt such pressure to succeed. The SAT’s, finals, even my high school basketball playoff games cannot compete with this. Unprecedented. Trying to correctly predict the field of 65 has taken its toll on me all season, and the closer to the selection show we get, the more I feel I am getting squeezed. It’s not like I don’t have anything on the line. My reputation and good name is at stake here. How do I follow up last year’s 64 out of 65 performance? The only way to go is down. I’m gonna throw up. This is where the men are separated from the boys. Let’s just do this. I can find comfort in the fact that I know I will at least get 31 teams right. What a relief.

Alright, I’m not going to list the 31 teams that have automatic bids because that’s pointless. Look it up if you really don’t know. But here is my list of the top 30 teams that will receive at-large bids (in no particular order):

Clemson, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Arizona State, California, Washington, Dayton, Boston College, Texas, West Virginia, LSU, Texas A&M, Butler, Michigan, Oklahoma State, BYU, Xavier, Ohio State, UCLA, Tennessee.

I know it wasn’t necessary to list all of those teams because most of them are obvious, but I don’t want there to be any confusion when I nail all the teams. This ain’t gonna be no 2000 Florida re-count. People are going to know right away and they won’t be able to deny it.

And now, the last 4 in:

Maryland- The Terps win over Wake put them into the Dance. In a year where the bubble has been ever-shrinking and other bubble teams have put themselves in trouble, Maryland earned the bid with a solid performance in the ACC tourney, getting their fourth big win over a tourney team (UNC, Michigan State, Michigan) and more importantly, a win away from home.

Minnesota- Three victories over tourney teams (and that jumps to six if Penn State and Wisconsin make it) including one over the potential No. 1 overall Louisville coupled with no bad losses is a recipe for dancing in the Gophers case, and that’s where they’ll find themselves.

Arizona- The last two spots were the hardest to fill, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the first three teams I have left out took one of these spots. The Wildcats have slumped lately and don’t have any good victories away from home (in fact they only have two in total), but there is no denying this team’s talent, and they have the big wins to prove it (Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, Washington).

Wisconsin: I have to give it to the Badgers by default. They played good teams in the non-conference, but only beat Virginia Tech, and NIT team. I think they deserve this spot because they beat Penn State head-to-head twice, and I just don’t think Creighton and St. Mary’s have tournament-worthy resumes.

I love disagreeing with Joe Lunardi, because it shows that I have original thoughts, and that I’m not just some wannabe pawn of his. I was waiting to jump all over him for having South Carolina and New Mexico in the field, but unfortunately he smartened up and gave them the boot. So, alas, the only teams Lunardi and I differ on are Arizona and Creighton. Last year, the only teams we differed on were Arizona State and Villanova, and we all know how that ended. This is my time though. Today, I get my revenge.

First 4 teams out:

Penn State- sorry guys. You are only out because the bubble shrank fast as USC, Temple, and Mississippi State stole bids. If it were a different year, you’re probably in, but it’s not, and only 65 can make it, and you are 66.

Creighton- they did win 11 in a row before following to Illinois State in the MVC semis, but they don’t have the resume. The only tourney teams they beat were Dayton, who is somewhat on the bubble, and Northern Iowa, who wouldn’t have got an at-large bid if they lost the MVC. They also have losses to UALR, Wichita State, and Drake.

Saint Mary’s- they are a great team with Patty Mills, but he is not healthy, and that was evident in the loss to Gonzaga in the WCC final. The committee is not going to roll the dice and hope that he is 100% for the tourney. That is too risky, considering the only tourney team they beat was Utah State.

San Diego State- another victim of the shrinking bubble. I just can’t put the Aztecs ahead of Arizona or Saint Mary’s, who both beat SDSU head-to-head. They’re only good wins were in conference, and only two were over NCAA teams (Utah and BYU).

Next Four out:

UNLV
Auburn
Virginia Tech
Florida