Happy Holidays! It is Championship Week, the official beginning of second Christmas. Last year, I received the best present that I have ever been given (and that includes my Ninja Turtles full-body costume): I got my brilliance, greatness, and expertise confirmed. 64 out of 65 NCAA Tournament teams predicted correctly, you can’t say anything to that. That’s a fact, chief. Come to think of it, I really got all 65 teams right, I just frequently mix up my Arizona State’s with my Villanova’s (they’re so similar, it’s an honest mistake). But seriously, if you don’t believe me, go back in the blog history, it’s all there. Once you’re a master though, you have a reputation to protect, and expectations are high for this year. No doubt I’m going to live up to them. Here’s an early taste.
Dancin’ in the Streets- Texas A&M, Utah
These teams are in like sin baby. Texas A&M just closed out the regular season by beating Mizzou, and they can add that to victories over Arizona, LSU, Texas, and Oklahoma State. They’re 23-8 (9-7 in the Big 12) and their only bad loss was to Tulsa (who really isn’t that bad). A win over Texas Tech in the first round of the conference tourney wouldn’t hurt their cause, but I think they’re in regardless, winning six straight down the home stretch.
Utah has a similar situation. They beat Gonzaga and laid a 30-point smack down on LSU, and they split with the other four legitimate NCAA contending teams in their conference (BYU, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State). This reminds me: I like to think of Rick Majerus as the Santa Claus of this second Christmas. Think about it, it makes perfect sense. Personally, I hope Utah goes down early. The only image I have when I think of them this year is that dirt bag kid who blatantly tripped Blake Griffin when they played OU in December (couldn't find the Youtube clip, my apologies). Guess what dude, karma is a bitch.
Feelin’ Alright- UNLV, Michigan
Michigan is going back to the dance. Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, and Minnesota (twice) are all checked off on the Wolverines’ hit list. The fact that they’re best road wins are at Northwestern and at Minnesota may is troubling, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep them out. If they avoid a loss to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament, they guarantee a spot.
UNLV is a tough team to get a read on. Look at their wins (Arizona, Louisville, New Mexico, Utah, and BYU twice) and it’s hard to snub them. But then again, they lost to TCU, Wyoming, and Colorado State in conference. With a 9-7 record in the Mountain West, it will be difficult to put them ahead of any of the other four teams ahead of them. That said, they play San Diego State in the first round of the tourney, and that could lock it up for them.
Livin’ on a Prayer- Creighton, Davidson
A 25-point loss in the conference championship game is not a good taste to put in the selection committee’s mouth. They’ll be tasting that sour defeat all week while they decide to let Creighton in or not, and after a week they’ll be pretty sick of it. Davidson played big time competition early in the year, but they didn’t win any of those games, aside from West Virginia. 18-2 is a great conference record, but the Southern Conference is not a great league by any means. Both these teams need the other bubble teams to have a Mighty Ducks-esque collapse (when they are the JV team in D3 against the Blake Bears) to have a chance at putting on their dancing shoes.
Down N’ Out- Virginia Tech, Kentucky
VA Tech has some big wins over Wake and Clemson, but 7-9 in conference and 13 losses already overall is just too much to overcome. They didn’t beat anyone in the non-conference and lost to Seton Hall and Georgia, and are 3-9 in their last 12. Can you spell NIT? I know Kentucky can. The Wildcats finished 8-8 in a mediocre SEC (which I believe only has two teams in the tourney as of now), and their non-conference didn’t help them either, with a loss to VMI. After losing four straight, they are bound for the NIT as well.
Important Conference Tourney games
Miami v. Virginia Tech- If the ‘Canes can get a win here, their chances can improve greatly depending on what other bubblers do, but it would give them a crack at UNC, and a victory over the Heels would earn them a bid. VA Tech is done-zo, but you never know what could happen if they win and go on a tear.
UNLV v. San Diego State- The Aztecs have more to lose here, but either way, it will be difficult for the loser to get in. UNLV has the inside track right now, but a third loss to SDSU (along with their 9-7 conference record) would put them in serious jeopardy. SDSU doesn’t have the resume that the Rebels do, and this first round loss could be the nail in the coffin.
Wisconsin v. Ohio State- It’s so hard to get a read on the Big Ten, because all the bubble teams in that conference have such similar resumes. I could be that they all get in, or none get in. How do you decide which to exclude? I think they are all right now, but the loser of this game will be sweating like Michael Jackson on a playground come Selection Sunday.
Now it’s time for me to get my Joe Lunardi on.
Last four in:
Arizona, Minnesota, Penn State, St. Mary’s
First Four Out:
Creighton, New Mexico, San Diego State, Miami
Next Four Out:
Florida, Davidson, South Carolina, Providence
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